Negative and confused feelings—a look at enrollment numbers as some schools prepare to close
ANCHORAGE, Alaska (KTUU) -As the Anchorage School district looks at closing, consolidating and adjusting boundaries here’s a look at the student enrollment for the last 15 years. There is a noticeable dip, most likely COVID-19 related, in 2021 with a rebound the following two years. There is a decline in overall numbers, which is on par with statewide population number trends.
According to ASD, in 2010 there were 49,243 students enrolled. Fast forward to now and there are 42,638. That’s a loss of 6,605 students over 15 years.
The lowest enrollment numbers were in 2021 at 41,962 students, but by the following two years the numbers increased to 43,390 in 2022 and then up to 44,320 in 2023. That’s an additional 2,958 students.
Alaska’s birth rate is the lowest it has been in history kept by the Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development. Meanwhile, deaths have increased with the peak in 2021-2022. As of July 1, 2023, Alaska had an estimated 736,812 people.
State data shows continued out migration and low birthrates. An analysis from the Department of Labor shows that by 2050, Alaska’s population will decrease to 722,806.
“We need everyone. We need more people,” Governor Mike Dunleavy, said in his 2024 State of the State address. “There’s no question about it, and encouraging pro-life policies that lead to more people having families and kids shouldn’t be controversial….Whether you’re a student of history or just a casual observer, we can’t have the kind of economic activity, growth, and technological advancements that have built civilization over thousands of years without an increasing population.”
Superintendent Jharrett Bryantt said that just because some schools have smaller class sizes, it doesn’t mean students are getting the attention they need.
”One school in ASD, just as an example, is at 39% capacity. A school like that, just as an example, is likely to only have one third grade teacher, one fourth grade teacher, it’s probably more likely to share a nurse, share a counselor, share a music teacher,“ Bryantt said. ”By consolidating our resources into fewer buildings, we could reverse that trend. So right now, our smaller schools, they’re smaller, but they’re not resourced properly. It actually is more expensive to have a fully resourced small school.
The school district has pointed to many reasons, including lower enrollment numbers and a lack of increased, stable, state funding, as reasons why it needs to make drastic changes. The last significant increase to the Base Student Allocation was in 2017.
An additional cost ASD is facing are “critical upgrades” to school buildings. The average age of an ASD building is 37 years.
“In the past, state funding covered a significant portion of school facility costs, but since 2015, that support has diminished. The backlog of deferred maintenance has skyrocketed from under $170 million to over $1 billion, putting additional strain on our resources,” Bryantt wrote on ASD’s website.
“They only get one chance at school, and I need to make sure it’s the best experience that they that we can offer them,” Bryantt said.
The district acknowledges that looking at closing schools will be a very emotional experience with PTA groups forming plans and advocating to keep their schools open.
“I expect to hear, you know, a lot of negative or confused or angry sentiments from families, and that’s okay. That’s part of this process. And the same thing goes for teachers and staff,” Bryantt said.
Bryantt said at the last school board meeting that for the next 10 years, unless something ‘extraordinary’ happens, there will be continued changes at ASD.
“I see us being in this for the next ten years unless something extraordinary happens within our community, so as difficult as it is for me to move this conversation forward, I can’t, for the next ten years, allow the education of our students to continually be decreased in levels of service,” Bryantt said.
ASD will meet with the community over the next week to talk about the recommendations to close Bear Valley Elementary, Lake Hood Elementary, Tudor Elementary, Fire Lake Elementary, Nunaka Valley Elementary, Wonder Park Elementary and Baxter Elementary
The district will be offering four days for the public to give their feedback and ask questions:
- Tuesday, Nov. 12: 6-8 p.m. at Chugiak High School
- Thursday, Nov. 14: 6-8 p.m. at Dimond High School
- Saturday, Nov. 16: Noon-2 p.m. at Bartlett High School
- Monday, Nov. 18: 11 a.m.-1 p.m. via Zoom
- Monday, Nov. 18: 6-8 p.m. via Zoom
More information on Rightsizing ASD is available here.
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