Mt. Spurr volcano still rumbling but activity has not increased significantly — yet

ANCHORAGE, Alaska (KTUU) - Scientists at the Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO) are keeping a close eye on Mt. Spurr — USGS geophysicist Dave Schneider said activity for the volcano is still considered elevated above normal at code Yellow but has not increased significantly in the past week.

“The earthquake activity waxes and wanes on any particular day,” Schneider said. “But overall, it’s in a general sort of stable pattern.”

The last time Spurr erupted was in 1992, Schneider said that followed an extended period of unrest that ramped up before the actual event. He said it’s likely that Spurr would give similar warning signs before an eruption occurred.

“We think that sort of change would happen maybe days or weeks prior to an eruption. And that would allow us to shorten our time frame from when we expect activity to occur,” he said.

Sophisticated software and regular overflights are helping scientists construct 3D computer models of the mountain, allowing them to see change over time. The images suggest the volcano is slowly heating up from within.

But even if activity ramps up, Schneider said, that’s not a guarantee of an eruption.

“Even at that point it’s not certain an eruption will occur. There are lots of volcanoes that get almost all the way to an eruption and don’t, it doesn’t actually happen. So it is important for people to be aware this is not a certainty, but it’s more likely than not,” Schneider said.

He said the observatory is coordinating with partners around the state to make sure that people are as prepared as they can be without panicking.

“I think that’s a big thing to remember here,” he said. “Ash fall can be disruptive, but it is manageable.”

He said right now AVO is in the “preparedness stage,” watching the volcano by day and ready to respond at night should activity pick up.

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